Polymarket odds look simple — just a percentage. But understanding what they really mean, why they move, and how to use them to your advantage takes a bit more depth. This guide covers everything you need to read Polymarket prices like a pro.
Every Polymarket market shows prices between 1% and 99% (displayed as cents: 1¢ to 99¢). This represents the market's collective probability estimate of an outcome occurring. A market at 65% means: traders collectively believe there's a 65% chance this event will happen.
These are also prices. If you buy YES at 65¢ and the event resolves YES, you receive $1.00 — a profit of 35¢ per share. If it resolves NO, you lose your 65¢. Simple as that.
| Situation | Buy | Price | If Right, Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| You think event will happen (market at 60%) | YES | 60¢ | 67% return |
| You think event won't happen (market at 60%) | NO | 40¢ | 150% return |
| You think market overestimates at 80% | NO | 20¢ | 400% return |
| You think market underestimates at 30% | YES | 30¢ | 233% return |
The formula is simple: profit per share = $1.00 - purchase price. If you buy YES at 72¢ and win, you earn 28¢ per share. If you buy NO at 28¢ (which is 100¢ - 72¢) and the event doesn't happen, you earn 72¢ per share.
Your total profit depends on how many shares you buy. Investing $100 at 72¢ buys you ~139 shares. If it resolves YES, you receive $139 — a profit of $39 (39% return).
Prices on Polymarket move when new information enters the market. The main drivers:
The most profitable skill is identifying when a market price doesn't accurately reflect the true probability. Common sources of market mispricing:
For markets with multiple outcomes (like "Who will win the World Cup?"), each team has its own YES/NO market. The prices of all teams should sum to approximately 100%, though they often sum to slightly more due to market maker fees.
Browse 1,000+ live prediction markets with real-time prices.
Browse Markets →